An election based on sectarian and confessional divisions

Many know that Lebanon has 18 confessions, representing almost all religions in the Eastern Mediterranean. But there is one major religion still missing, that of simple citizens who are sick of being labeled as religious followers, and being abused by the ruling class in the name of God (whatever he/she might be).

In any case, the mosaic of Lebanon's elections lies on a deceptive trick played by the ruling class, in order to recreate itself and block any change, through carefully tailored electoral districts. These districts are drawn around the limits of registered sectarian affiliation, in order for sectarian leaders to better control the masses. The good old "divide et impera".

The table below shows the electoral districts in Lebanon, and the share of each sect in each district's registered citizens (except Beirut, which is further divided into 3 electoral zones under the 2009 Law).



A further analysis of this table can reveal the 'political bargaining power' of sects in each district. The graph below shows first the districts where the main sects have influence, i.e. a sizable share allowing to make political deals and bargaining. Sunnis have 11, Shi'a 12, Druzes 5, Maronites 11, and Orthodox, Catholics and Armenians each 2 districts.

What is also noteworthy is districts where sects have a strong majority (way above the 51% threshold). Sunnis have 4, Shi'a 6, Druze 1, Maronites 6 and Orthodox 1.

With the representation of Sunnis and Shi'a almost entirely confiscated, on one hand by the Saudi-backed islamic moderate, son of former Prime Minister, and on the other hand by Hizbullah, backed by Iran; and with the Druze also under the grip of one feudal lord, the battle remains on who controls the Christian vote (Maronites, Orthodox, Catholics and Armenians). This why in these elections in 2009 the real electoral battles are fought on 'Christian land'.